
There was a ups and downs in the market on the last day of the business week i.e. 05 September. Sensex-Nifty’s flat closing. The Sensex fell 7 points to 80 thousand 711 and the Nifty climbed 7 points to close at 24 thousand 741. The midcap, the smallcap index closed at the edge. In today’s market, 16 out of 30 shares of Sensex were sold, 27 out of 50 shares of Nifty were seen. Talking on the market ahead and Nippon India Mutual Fund, Fund Manager Equity Dhrumil Shah said that the Modi government has given a big relief package. GST cut will increase consumption in economy. Many sectors will benefit from GST cut. Consumption, auto sector will benefit. Consumer is also good for durable sector. The government has given relief in income tax earlier also. This is the step to boost the consumption. Effect on the earnings is possible in the next 3–4 quarters.
Talking on the market, he said that the market has seen fluctuations for the last 6 months. The impact of tariff was seen on the market. GST rate cut did the mood of the market. The market has been a range-bound for the last 1 year. Consolidation has improved expensive valuations in many places. Right now the market is neither very cheap nor very expensive. The price in government benefit sectors has increased. Consumption, keep an eye on the auto sector. Banking, IT sector valuations became affordable. If the outlook of the IT sector improves, the Nifty can go up. Moderate returns are expected in the market.
Giving opinion on the automobile sector, he said that the sales of premium cars have increased in the last 2–3 years. Entry-level cars had a slowdown in sales. The new GST change can fill this gap. Now the demand for entry-level cars will increase. The auto sector will get boost in the festive season. The 2-wheeler segment has possibilities.
FMCG demand was weak in the last 2 quarters. Volume growth of big companies was low. Many things will be affordable due to decrease in prices. Savings will increase due to reduced expenses. There will be diversification of money. From entry level to premium consumption will get boost.
Talking about Nippon India Value Fund, he said that large, mid, smallcap – all three are diversified. Invest in underwellude stocks. Waiting for the shares to reach the correct price. If there is recovery, they also buy high P/E stocks. Value funds have more dividend yields. Invest for a long period for good returns. There will be a focus on the investment option in the big range.
In which sector overweight
Commodities sector has good potential. Recovery is possible in the next 3–4 quarters in consumer products. Financial sector is currently respected according to valuations. At the same time, there is a possibility of growth from positive news in the IT sector, while in power utility there is a 5 -year strong growth visible. The EMS has a chance of very strong growth for the next 5 years.
Strategy regarding commodities? Talking about, he said that many commodities are trading near Cost of Productions. There are ferrous/non-fires metals like steel, aluminum, copper. There is a possibility of a rally if the global macro improves. Dollar index fell, positive to commodities. Funds had 3.5–4% weightage in commodities.
Keeping his view on the IT sector, he said that in the last 2 years, there was a low single digit from growth moderate. Earnings Exactation was cut for the next 2 years. EPS growth estimates much less than before. Largecap remained below the valuation average of IT. The valuation comfort is clearly visible in the sector. In the next 2 years, there was a space investable on Growth Limited.
At the same time, an underweight position was built in the Capital Goods sector. The valuations of the sector became very expensive. The order book growth was moderated in the last 1–2 quarters. This sector has been avoided for now. The focus of the government is now towards the consumption.
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