Market experts have full confidence in India’s growth story. He believes that despite the increase in geopolitical risks due to the policy of US President Donald Trump, India’s performance will remain better. It will not be affected by short term fluctuations. Market experts said these things at the CFA Society India Investment Conference held in Mumbai on January 9.
2026 will be better than 2025
Vikas Khemani of Carenlian Asset Managers said, “I believe that 2026 will be better than 2025. Last year was a year of consolidation.” He said that every two years you get to see a year like this. Citing the example of uncertainty created by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, he said frustration reaches its peak before conditions become normal. He said that even then the disappointment was at its peak due to geopolitics, oil prices and inflation. But, the situation started becoming normal from September-October.
India’s growth story has become stronger
He said that even amidst global uncertainty, India’s growth story has become stronger. He said, “While these things were happening in the last 12 months, many things came to the fore to support India’s growth. These included monetary measures, liquidity infusion, interest rate actions and growth promoting policies.” He said that the government’s focus remains on capital expenditure. There is improvement in private capex also.
There remains a challenge regarding valuation
Many experts believed that looking at Trump’s policies, it is very difficult to make any predictions about the market. Chirag Setalvad of HDFC AMC said that although long-term returns remain strong, valuations are still a challenge. He said that the returns for the last 3 years are still 20 plus. The return of midcap in the last 10 years is 16-17 percent. The performance of Indian markets has been excellent. We have seen a year or one and a half year of consolidation.
Midcap and smallcap valuations at premium
“Valuations are still at a premium. In midcaps the premium is 15-20 per cent. In smallcaps it is 14-15 per cent. Corrections are needed to come back to normal levels,” he said. He said that a big change has been seen in retail sentiment. The pace of IPO has slowed down. Sensitivity regarding valuations has increased. Earlier we were very worried, now we are a little worried. Regarding foreign markets, he said that growth in America could be 2.5-2.7 percent. There are structural issues with China. Europe is in midair.
Valuation of Indian markets has always been high
Prashant Khemka of WhiteOak Capital said that despite the noise, the Indian market remains stable. He said that at the beginning of any year, 10-12 percent returns can be expected from the Indian markets. 2026 will also be no different. He refused to accept that India’s valuations were high. He said that the market multiple has always been high in India. India deserves a higher multiple. There is democracy here. Property rights are strong.