CNBC-Awaaz, Managing Editor, Anuj Singhal
Today is a day of big reaction on the budget for the market. FIIs were not there yesterday and their reaction will be available today. The most decisive level will be yesterday’s lowest level of 24571. If 24571 is broken then the risk of 24,000 will also increase. To regain confidence, it is necessary to close above 25,450. The counter trend rally had failed at 25,450 and there is also 20 DEMA of Nifty. But there is no doubt that the market’s confidence has been shaken by the budget. In such a situation, there is a danger of failure of the recovery of midcap and smallcap.
Market: today’s signals
Today’s biggest signal PCR has fallen to 0.59. Huge fluctuations are being seen in gold and silver. Brent crude also fell significantly by 5%. Global markets are in crisis when Indian markets are already weak. However, one good news amidst all this was the auto sales figures. If anyone can change sentiment, it is auto sales. On the one hand, the sales figures of all the companies have been excellent.
Budget: What’s the verdict?
If we remove the STT factor then the budget was not so bad. Yesterday the entire budget got overshadowed because of STT and my question is what was the need to change STT? If the logic is that 93% traders lose money then stop it. Or give some incentives for making long term investments. The biggest positive of the budget is the promotion of data centers and AI. Budget positive for datacentre investments: There is a 21-year tax holiday. There is a shortage of listed companies here but big money will be made here. Despite all this, this budget will be known only to increase STT. Budget comes every year, only some remain in memories. The last budget will be known for big income tax cuts. This budget will be used to increase STT.
Market: What should be the strategy now?
Understand one thing – we are in a bearish market. Not a complete bear market but a bearish market, there is a slight difference. In this market, the reward on good news is also good, but 70-80% of the shares are in a big decline at the moment. For now you have to stick with relative strength. Till now at least there was a place to hide metal, now there are terrible fluctuations there too. There was a big breakdown in capital market shares also yesterday. Today’s big test will be in money market and PSU bank shares. The auto sector is now back in the fresh entry zone. Auto sales are good and stocks have already fallen. Also, if commodity prices fall, it will be very positive. Apart from this, you can also focus on shares related to data centers.
What to do with gold and silver?
The biggest question of this year is: Has a top been formed in silver? Silver is now 40% below its high but still 2.5x above its low. Any global asset will carry this risk in a parabolic run, but the gold and silver rally was not just speculation. The rally is linked to fundamentals. Buy gold and silver now in decline? Make entry back in pieces in the next 1-2 months.
strategy on nifty
The first support is at 24,650-24,750 (Options Zone). Major support lies at 24,550-24,600 (yesterday’s peak). The first registration was at 25,000-25,100. Major resistance lies at 25,200-25,250 (200 DMA). Wait for the rally to fail and then short. In short trades, place a stop loss at the high of the first hour. Buy only after it remains above Rs 25,000 for at least an hour.
bank nifty strategy
You may not be able to take any trade in Bank Nifty today. The range of Bank Nifty is very large. Basic range will be 58,000-59,000 and big range will be 57,500-59,500.
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