The eyes of stock investors are on the Union Budget. They hope that some big announcements by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman can bring excitement back into the stock market. The beginning of 2026 has not been good for the stock market. Selling pressure has been seen in the market. However, Helios Capital founder and veteran fund manager Sameer Arora believes that there will be no major announcement on February 1, which will change the direction of the stock market. He said that he does not expect much from the Union Budget.
FPI should not be taxed in India
“There is no hope,” Arora said. However, he said that the government may announce some minor changes in long term capital gains. But, these will not have much impact on the market. He says that Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) should not be taxed in India. They should be taxed in their own country, just as there are tax rules abroad for Indian investors. However, he believes that it is difficult to change the system after the rates increased last year.
Reduction in capital gains tax will have a positive impact on sentiment.
He said that even if in the short term, if capital gains tax is reduced for all investors, it will improve sentiment and increase post-tax returns. He said, “If such an announcement is made, the markets may rise by 4-5 per cent. Tax reduction has a direct impact on investors’ returns. They increase.” He believes that gradually the market sentiment will improve. Earnings growth and global trade development will contribute to this in the next 6-9 months.
Weakness in rupee may increase concerns of foreign investors
The founder of Helios Capital said that the recent decline in the market is being attributed to valuations, whereas in the last years when the market was rising, the valuations were similar. He said that currency weakness could be a matter of concern for foreign investors. Portfolio outflows impact the rupee. Due to this, despite the stability in the stock market, the returns of foreign investors reduce.
Finance Minister will present the budget for the 9th consecutive time on 1st February
Union budget will come on 1 February. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will present the Union Budget for the 9th consecutive time. This budget is coming at a time when there is uncertainty in the global economy due to tariffs and geopolitical tensions. America has imposed the highest tariff on India, 50 percent, which has affected exports.