Nifty Outlook: On Tuesday and Wednesday last week, Nifty could not stand above 26,200. Since then, there has been a slight weakness in the index. First Nifty slipped below 20-DMA and could not even survive the important psychological level of 26,000 on Monday. It fell 100 points to close at 25,942.
Now let us understand from the experts how the movement of Nifty will be on Tuesday, 30th December and which levels will be important. But, first let us know what special happened in the market on Monday and what factors will be kept in mind now.
Market stuck in the same range for two months
It is clear that Nifty is still moving in a wide range of 25,700 to 26,200. The index has been stuck in this range for the last two months.
Every time Nifty comes around 25,700, buying is seen there. At the same time, as soon as it reaches near 26,200-26,300, selling starts. That is, there is currently a lack of clear trend in the market and range-bound trading is going on.
Last expiry of 2025
Tuesday is the last monthly NSE expiry of 2025, but it is also the last expiry of the entire year. As the last trading day of the year approaches, market participation may further reduce.
Apart from this, there will be changes in F&O segment from the beginning of January series. Four stocks will be excluded and four new stocks will be included. Tuesday’s session may see sharp fluctuations due to position square-off, covering and unwinding.
Signs of technical weakness in small range
If we look at the small range from December 11’s low of 25,693 to last Wednesday’s high of 26,236, Nifty has closed below the 38.2% and 50% retracement levels of this range. Now the next important support of this recent uptrend is formed around 61.8% retracement i.e. around 25,904.
25,821 important levels in a wide range
If we look at the broader range of Nifty from November 7 low of 25,318 to the recent record high of 26,325, then its 50% retracement comes around 25,821. Many technical analysts believe that Nifty may slip to this level before new strong buying comes.
26,000-26,200 major hurdle
Talking about bullishness, the level of 26,000 has now become a big resistance for Nifty. Above this, the level of 26,200 will be the next important hurdle. Unless Nifty gives a clear breakout from this range, the market is likely to remain volatile in a limited range.
Expert opinion on Nifty
According to Osho Krishnan of Angel One, the zone of 25,900-25,850 currently remains the immediate support for Nifty. If further pressure increases on the market, then the level of 25,700 will be very important, because the near-term rally of Nifty rests on it.
If we look upwards, the level of 26,100-26,150 remains a strong resistance for Nifty. He says that traders should make their trading strategy keeping an eye on these levels.
Nifty momentum weak
Amrita Shinde of Choice Broking says that the current price action clearly shows that there is continuous selling pressure at the upper levels. Further buying power in the market appears to be weak at the moment, indicating fatigue and weak momentum in the short term.
According to Shinde, the zone of 26,050-26,100 is a strong resistance, while support is visible between 25,800-25,850. After slipping below the psychological level of Rs 26,000, there is a need to trade with caution, protect capital and adopt strict stop-loss.
condition of nifty bank
Nifty Bank had to maintain the level of 59,000, but the index failed in this. However, Nifty Bank recovered more than 100 points from the day’s lows, which did not put much pressure on Nifty. Most importantly, Nifty Bank defended the level of 58,980, which is also the 38.2% retracement level of the recent uptrend.
Important levels of Nifty Bank
If Nifty Bank goes below 58,980, then the next important support is seen near 58,800. If this level is also broken, the index may slip to 58,500.
According to Sudeep Shah of SBI Securities, going forward the 50-DEMA zone of 58,600-58,500 will act as immediate support for Nifty Bank. If this zone also does not survive, then the index can go up to 58,000 in the short term. On the upside, the level of 59,100-59,200 will remain a major hurdle for Nifty Bank.
fluctuations in precious metals
Apart from the index, the discussion in the market still remains about the sharp fluctuations in precious metals. Silver on MCX saw sharp correction after hitting record high of ₹2.5 lakh per kg.
The effect of this movement in precious metals was clearly visible on metal stocks also. Hindustan Copper fell nearly 10% from the day’s high, although it finally managed to close above flat. At the same time, Hindustan Zinc’s four-day long rally was broken and weakness was seen in the stock.
Block Deal: Promoter increased stake in this company, bought shares worth ₹ 50 crores; Know the details
Disclaimer: The advice or opinions expressed on Moneycontrol.com are the personal views of the expert/brokerage firm. The website or management is not responsible for this. Moneycontrol advises users to always seek the advice of a certified expert before taking any investment decision.