Share Markets: Today, on 26th November, a bumper rise was seen in the Indian stock markets. Both Sensex and Nifty closed near their lifetime high levels. The Sensex is now about 400 points away from its record high. At the same time, Nifty is just 75 points behind its all-time high. Market analysts say that the stock market is now waiting for some short-term trigger to reach its new record high.
“The market is already close to its previous peak, so even small positive triggers here could be enough to take Sensex and Nifty to new records, provided there is no major global shock in the short term,” said Abhinav Tiwari, Research Analyst, Bonanza.
Experts have mentioned a total of five such triggers for which the market is still waiting. He said that these triggers can start the next rally of the market and take the market to new record high.
1. Possibility of interest rate cut by RBI in December
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is scheduled to be held between December 3 and December 5. RBI had cut interest rates by a total of 1 percent in the first half of this year, but the cuts came to a halt after August.
Although initial estimates were that there would be no cut in December, but now the situation is changing. Expectations have also increased due to the recent statement of RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra.
Governor Malhotra said in an interview to a news channel that in the last MPC meeting in October, it was clearly said that there is scope for further reduction in rates. The macro-economic data that has come since then does not appear to be reducing this scope.”
He further said, “There is scope for reducing interest rates, but it depends on what decision the MPC takes on this in the next meeting.”
Market experts believe that if RBI reduces interest rates in December, then many rate-sensitive sectors like banking, real estate, auto and consumer can see a rise, which can take the market to new record highs.
2. India-US trade agreement
The trade deal between India and America has been stuck for a long time. However, US President Trump has repeatedly claimed that America is close to a trade deal with India. But no clear timeline has been revealed yet for the completion of this deal. Market experts say that if this deal happens, it can prove to be positive for the stock market. Also, export-oriented sectors like IT, textile, defense and manufacturing can directly benefit from this.
Abhinav Tiwari, research analyst at Bonanza, said, “Any good news regarding the India-US trade agreement can further strengthen investor confidence.”
Wealth1 CEO Narendra Agarwal also considers this an important trigger for the market. “Any agreement that strengthens bilateral trade between the two countries, reduces tariff concerns, or strengthens technology and manufacturing partnerships will be viewed positively by the market. India is still in a structural bull phase, but its short-term trajectory will be determined by these factors,” he said.
3. Peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine
America is working on a new peace plan to end the war that has been going on for the last 4 years between Russia and Ukraine. On Tuesday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky signaled that he was ready to move forward on the US peace plan and to discuss some contentious points with Trump. He also said that European allies should be included in the talks. However, many Ukrainians consider these terms to be almost a surrender.
According to reports, officials of Russia and Ukraine may soon hold a meeting to further discuss the terms of the peace agreement. However, it is also important to note that several rounds of talks have taken place before this, but no concrete result was achieved.
Despite this, if somehow both sides agree to a deal and the war ends, it could have a very positive impact on global markets. The effect of these peace efforts has already started becoming visible. The price of Brent crude oil has fallen below $63.
4. Possibility of rate reduction in America
The US Federal Reserve has also indicated to cut interest rates in December, due to which the entire global market remained bullish on Wednesday. Initially it was believed that the Federal Reserve would not make any cuts due to inflation related concerns, but now the picture has changed.
Two Federal Reserve officials have given statements in support of cutting interest rates. Investors’ expectations have been further strengthened by these statements. The market is now expecting a 0.25 per cent cut in interest rates in the December meeting, which was considered almost impossible a few weeks ago.
This cut in interest rates will have a direct impact on consumer spending in America, which can be beneficial for Indian IT companies. Since a large part of the Indian IT sector is dependent on the US market, a rise in such IT stocks could take the Sensex and Nifty to new record highs.
5. Continuous buying by FIIs
Investors keep a close eye on the activities of foreign portfolio investors (FII/FPI) in the Indian markets, as their movements often decide the direction of the market. Foreign investors made net purchases of Rs 785 crore a day earlier on November 25. However, so far in 2025, FIIs have made a total net sale of ₹ 2.57 lakh crore, while DIIs have made huge purchases of ₹ 6.91 lakh crore in comparison, which has provided support to the market.
Market experts say that if foreign investors continue to buy further, it will not take much time for the market to reach new all-time highs.
Siddharth Maurya of Vibhavangal Anukkara said, “FII flows are now stabilizing and liquidity on the domestic front is strong. This sentiment is supporting the market. If Nifty closes stable above the current resistance zone, then new highs are not far. There will be ups and downs in between, but as long as the economic fundamentals are strong, the trend looks positive.”
“If US bond yields remain stable or go down further, and there are no new banking or geopolitical shocks globally, FIIs’ buying in Indian stocks may continue further,” says Abhinav Tiwari, research analyst at Bonanza.
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