Stock market outlook: After a weakness that came last week, the Indian stock market made a strong comeback in the week ended on September 5 and climbed more than one per cent. However, this fast is not considered very strong, as there is pressure on the upper levels. The reason for this is the uncertainty about America’s tariff and continuous FII selling.
GST rates improved and crude oil softening supported the market, but the exit of global trade stress and foreign capital continued to increase the concern of investors. Meanwhile, gold prices reached $ 3,655.5 per troy ounces as the demand for safe investment increased.
Experts say that market fluctuations may continue in the week starting from September 8. Investors will be eyeing the inflation of India and the US, the NPC meeting of China, the decision of the interest rate of the European Central Bank, the US jobs data and the Indo-US trade deal related to the news.
Siddharth Khemka of Motilal Oswal Financial Services said that despite global uncertainty and tariff increase, GST reform and strong signs of domestic economy would support the market in the near future. Vinod Nair of Geojit Investments also admitted that the sentiment could be mixed and in this environment, multi-asset investment strategy will get more importance.
How will the condition and direction of the stock market be between 8 to 12 September this week, will decide 10 important factor. Let’s know about it in details.
India’s inflation data
The August retail inflation figure is coming on 12 September. This will be important for the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), as a big decision is to be taken on interest rates between September 29 to October 1. Inflation came down to 1.55% in July, which was 2.1% in June. This was the first time inflation went below the RBI fixed scope (2-6%). This raised people hoping that RBI could cut rates. But now most economists believe that inflation has reached its lower level.
The RBI made it clear in the August meeting that before making a new cut, it wants to see the impact of the last 100 basis points cut. Currently, his focus is on growth, although the scope of another rate cut cannot be denied.
On the same day i.e. September 12, the data of bank loan and deposit growth (till 29 August) and Forex Reserve (till September 5) will also be released.
America’s inflation data
The world is now eyeing the US inflation figures coming on September 11. Inflation was 2.7% in July and it is believed that it may increase slightly in August. This figure will be very important for the decision on the interest rates of Federal Reserve.
Along with this, the first estimate of the Michigan Inflation Expectations for the month of USA’s Weekly Jobs data and the month of September will also determine the direction of the market.
Chinese MP meeting
Next week, the 17th session of China’s Parliament i.e. 14th National People’s Congress and its Standing Committee will also be in discussion. The meeting will be held from 8 to 12 September.
According to the report of China Daily, the MPs will discuss several important draft laws during this period. These will include Atomic Energy, Public Health Emergency, National Parks, Safety of Dangerous Chemicals and other issues. Apart from this, proposals such as amendment in cybercirescence law and extradition treaty with Serbia will also be considered.
Global Economic Data
In addition to the US economic figures and the Parliament meeting of China, the Final GDP growth rate of the European Central Bank (ECB) policy and Japan’s April-June quarter (Q2) will also remain in the market eyes next week.
Most economists believe that ECB will keep the interest rates stable at 2.15% in its policy meeting on September 11. The bank wants to see the complete impact of the US tariff policy on Europe’s economic growth and inflation, so that the further rate can decide on the cut. In the last meeting held in July, ECB ended its monetary relaxation policy after the rate cut eight times in a row. At the same time, inflation increased from 2% of July to 2.1% in August.
In addition, according to initial estimates, Japan’s economy rose 0.3% in Q2-2025, despite the US tariff, while the revised figure in Q1 was just 0.1%.
The activity of Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) will also be monitored in the market this week. In the first week of September, the FII remained a net seller, even though the government tried to increase consumption by improving GST. FII was worried about high share prices, Trump Tariff and Indo-US trade deal uncertainty.
Last week, FII sold shares worth around ₹ 5,667 crore, but domestic institutional investors (DIIs) made the impact of this selling completely reduced. DIIS bought shares worth ₹ 13,444 crore.
Indian rupee condition
The rupee will also be focused. The rupee fell to a record low of 88.3625 in a week against the US dollar and ended at 88.1430. It is showing weakness for the second consecutive week. The reason was the continuous FII selling and uncertainty of Indo-US trade deal. However, the RBI intervened to stop the decline and the weakness of the dollar index and the softening of oil prices gave some relief.
Currency futures have a pattern such as Dozy last week, which show confusion between bulls and bears. Experts believe that the rupee may remain unstable in the coming week. The US dollar index fell 0.12% to 97.737 a week. Due to weak jobs data, it remained below all the major moving averages and has been showing indifferent patterns for the last several weeks.
The primary market will be very active next week, even though the secondary market remains unstable and in the range. Investors will get to see 10 new IPOs. It has three mainboards- Urban Company, Shringar House of Mangalsutra, and Dev Accelerator, a total of ₹ 2,444 crore, which will open on 10 September.
The remaining seven IPOs are from SME section- Krupalu Metals, Nilachal Carbo Metalicks, Karbontel Engineering, Taurian MPS, Jay Ambe Supermarkets, Airfloa Rail Technology, and Lt Elevator. Also, last week open SME iPOS-Austere Systems, Vigor Plast India, Sharma Metals, and Vashishtha Luxury Fashion will close next week.
Talking about the listing, seven companies will debut in the stock market. The mainboard has only amanta healthcare, the remaining six-rachit prints, goel construction company, optive tek consulting, austere systems, vigor plast India, and Sharma metals sme section.
Technical attitude
Technically, the market mood was cautious, but more than 1% rally was also held. Nifty 50 created a bullish candle in a weekframe, with a long upper shade. This means that trend is positive, but also showed a high level of selling pressure. The index took support at 24,400 and closed over 20-week EMA. But the midline (24,775) of the Bollinger Bands and the high (25,000) of the last week could not stand.
So according to experts, the next week the index may remain between 24,400–25,000. Going above 25,000 can open a route from 25,200-25,250. At the same time, there will be 24,300 important support if falling below 24,400, and below it can be controlled completely in the market.
According to the weekly options data, NIFTY 50 is expected to be in the range of 24,500 to 25,000 next week. Clear breakdown of this range can show the concrete direction of the market in any direction.
The highest call open interest is on 25,000 strikes, followed by 25,500 and 24,900 strikes. The most called Call Writing was 25,100, 25,400 and 24,700 on strikes. The Put Open Interest is the highest on 24,000 strikes, followed by 24,500 and 24,600 strikes. The most putwriting took place on 24,000, 24,650 and 24,800 strikes.
Meanwhile, Fear Index India Vix came to a two -year low last week, which is good for Bulls. However, due to low levels, there is a need to be cautious for a sharp move. VIX fell 8.27% to 10.78, which is the lowest level since 9 October 2023. Overall, this index has been trading in the range since mid -July.
Corporate action
Next week, important corporate updates will also be seen in some companies. These include the record date of dividend and bonus issue. (See chart)
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