Market Outlook: The Indian stock market witnessed profits in the week ended July 4. The Nifty dropped 0.7% this week after a rise of about 4% in the last two weeks, although the low voliticity index (VIX) supported the market.
According to Siddharth Khemka, Wealth Management Research Head of Motilal Oswal Financial Services, the market is currently in a consolidation phase and is waiting for clarity on the US trade policy. At the same time, research head Vinod Nair in Geojit Investments says, “If the US-India trade deal has a positive result, it will benefit from business-sensitive sectors like IT, Pharma and Auto, especially.”
Let’s know about those 10 major factor, which will decide the condition and direction of the market in a businessman starting on Monday, July 7.
Quarterly results of companies
The market will be eyeing the corporate earnings season (April-June quarter 2025) starting next week. It will begin with the results of companies like TCS, Avenue Supermarts, Tata Alexi, Cemen Energy India and Aditya Birla Money.
Experts have high expectations from the quarterly results this time. He feels that the financial figures and management comments of companies may indicate strong recovery this year and can be revised upwards for a full year’s earnings. This is currently 12–13 percent. There are some important reasons behind this expectation- major changes in tax structure in the budget, cuts in interest rates from RBI, softening of geopolitical stresses and increasing capes of the government.
Trump tariff will be monitored
The most important factor on Global Front will be related to US President Donald Trump’s tariff policy. On July 9, the 90-day deferment is coming to an end in April to postpone the decision to impose recipes on all business partners. It will now be seen what amendment of the US tariff rates, how baseline rates are fixed and with which countries trade deals are finalized.
According to the latest reports, President Trump has warned that if there was no deal with Japan till 9 July, he could impose 30 or 35 percent tariffs. There have been agreements with Britain, China and Vietnam, while the possibility of a deal with India is considered strong. The European Union may also soon announce a basic agreement to postpone the new tariffs.
According to Kayanat Chanwala of Kotak Securities, the market may remain vigilant as Trump can issue tariff notices on 12 countries on July 7, Monday, some fees can go up to 70 percent. It is expected that all these tariffs will be effective from August 1.
The next week the market will also keep an eye on the minutes of the meeting held by the US Federal Reserve in June. The statements of that meeting and after this were said in the statements of several Fed officials that vigilance will be taken over the cuts cuts, as the increase in tariffs has caused the risk of inflation. Also, strong employment figures in the US indicate that the Fed does not have immediate need to reduce the interest rate.
However, some analysts believe that the possibility of cutting rates in July or September due to pressure from US President Donald Trump still remains. The Federal Funds Rate was kept stable at 4.25–4.50% for the fourth consecutive time in the June policy of the Fed.
Apart from FOMC minutes, the US weekly job data and consumer inflation expectations for June will also be important for the market. Similarly, Europe’s retail sales data, Japan’s producer Price Index (PPI), China’s CPI and PPI figures will also come. All these figures can affect global market perception.
Crude oil prices are monitored
Crude oil prices are an important indicator for net importer countries like India. After the meeting of OPEC+ last week, prices saw fluctuations. Also, there is a possibility of further pressure on prices due to Trump’s new tariff policy.
According to Kayanat Chanwala of Kotak Securities, ‘OPEC+ has agreed to increase the production of 5,48,000 barrels per day (BPD) more than expected for August, which is much higher than the average of the last three months. This may put pressure on oil prices.
Meanwhile, the International Benchmark Brent crude recorded a 3% rise and closed at $ 68.8 per barrel over the weekend. However, last week it fell by more than 13%. Strong economic figures in the US and China supported prices, but the possibility of American tariff limited the boom.
FII flow will be monitored
In the domestic market, investors will be eyeing the mood of foreign institutional investors (FII) next week. Last week (30 June to 4 July) FII sold a total of ₹ 6,605 crore in the cash segment. Prior to this he was a consistent buyer. Selling was seen due to high valuation. However, domestic institutional investors (DII) compensated this weakness with a net purchase of ₹ 7,609 crore. Since August 2023, DII has been doing strong purchases continuously.
Vijaykumar, the Chief Investment Strategist of Geojit Investments, said, “FII shopping will depend on two things, if there is an Indo-US trade deal, it will be positive for the market and FII flow. Second, everyone will be eyeing how the results of Q1Fy26 live. “
The US dollar index fell for the second consecutive week and closed at 96.985 with a weakness of 0.28%, the lowest level after February 2022. However, it has been 0.21% above July in July. It fell by 12.15% during January-June.
Tremendous stir in IPO market
Next week, the speed of the primary market on Dalal Street will remain fast, where six new initial public offers (IPOs) are going to be launched. In the mainboard segment, a public issue of Travel Food Services will open a public issue of ₹ 2,000 crore on July 7, followed by the IPO of Smartworks Courting Spaces will start from 10 July.
Investors will also get many options in the SME segment. On July 7, Smarten Power Systems and Chemkart India will enter the market with an issue of ₹ 50 crore and ₹ 80 crore respectively. After this, on July 8, Glen Industries will bring an IPO of ₹ 63 crore, while on July 9, Asston Pharmaceuticals will launch a public issue of ₹ 27.6 crore. On the same day, CFF Fluid Control will also open a follow-on public offering of ₹ 87.8 crore.
Talking about the listing, IPO of Cryogenic OGS and Happy Square Outsourcing Services will be closed on 7 July and their listing will be on 10 July. Meta Infotech’s public offer will be closed on July 8 and its stock will debut on 11 July. Apart from this, on July 7, a total of five companies- Marc Loire Fashions, Vandan Foods, Pushpa Jewellers, Cedaar Textile and Silky Overseas will be listed in the market. Crizac is the only company in the mainboard segment to enter the stock market on 9 July.
Last week, the Nifty 50 index continued to trade within a radius of 25,300 to 25,700, which is almost equal to the last week’s range. This shows that there is still a lack of clear direction and uncertainty in the market. According to the expert, if the Nifty breaks the level of 25,300 in the coming week decisively, the next support is considered at 25,200. If this level also breaks, the index can go down to a radius of 25,000–24,800.
At the same time, if the Nifty rests above 25,600–25,700, then the levels of 25,800–26,000 can open. The MACD is still built above the zero line and has a top of it. At the same time, Stokastic RSI has maintained a positive crossover on the weekly chart. The RSI is built at 62.4 above 60, although it saw a slight softness last week.
Weekly options data indicates that the broad scope for Nifty may be between 25,000 and 26,000, while the scope of 25,200–25,700 will be immediately able to monitor. Talking about call options, the most open interest is on 26,000 strikes, followed by 25,500 and 25,700. The highest call writing is at 26,000, followed by 26,200 and 25,700.
The most open interest in put options is on 25,000 strikes, followed by 25,200 and 25,400. The highest put writing is at 25,200, then at 25,300 and 25,400.
Meanwhile, India VIX has fallen for the third consecutive week and remains under all major moving averages, which is a relief for bulls. It fell 0.59% to close at 12.32 at the end of the week, which is the lowest level since September 2024.
Next week, many companies will have important corporate action. These include dividend, bonus issue and stock split. (See chart)
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